{
 "dataset": "four-percent-waterfall",
 "version": "v1",
 "generated_at": "2026-10-22T08:48:47+00:00",
 "assumptions_version": "2026-10-21.v1",
 "code_revision": "81414c9bcb861e7f16fbea64e80ea9697c10589c",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "spending_usd": 60000.0,
 "search_resolution_usd": 10000,
 "historical_data": {
  "span": "1871-2024 annual",
  "equity": "S&P composite total return (Shiller 1871-1925, Damodaran 1926+)",
  "bonds": "10-year US Treasuries (GS10 duration approximation 1871-1925, Damodaran T-bond 1926+)",
  "inflation": "US CPI-U, Dec-to-Dec (BLS 1913+, NBER/Minneapolis Fed 1871-1912)",
  "log_means": {
   "equity": 0.08809,
   "bonds": 0.04318
  },
  "geometric_inflation": 0.01964,
  "retirement_lab_defaults": "the historical preset: these figures rounded to 0.1 point"
 },
 "return_shapes": "per-asset Tukey g-and-h by tail_profile (simulation_engine/tail_shapes.py)",
 "steps": [
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   "group": "waterfall",
   "label": "Bengen's question",
   "change": "30 years, 50/50, replay history, no cohort may fail, no tax",
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   "required_portfolio_usd": 1510000.0,
   "required_multiple": 25.167,
   "implied_withdrawal_rate": 0.03974,
   "production_success": 1.0,
   "success_one_step_below": 0.992,
   "first_year_tax_median_local": 0.0,
   "annual_tax_average_local": 0.0,
   "simulation_currency": "AED",
   "run_id": 23511,
   "share_url": "https://retirementlab.app/s/gZhCDvIcuws",
   "assumptions_version": "2026-10-21.v1",
   "payload": {
    "additional_expenses": [],
    "additional_income": [],
    "age": 65,
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    "avg_return": 0.07,
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    "citizenship": "UAE",
    "country": "UAE",
    "horizon": 30,
    "inflation": 0.02,
    "initial_net_worth": 1510000.0,
    "initial_year": 2026,
    "market_turbulence": "historical",
    "plan_to_age": 95,
    "portfolio_allocation": [
     {
      "asset_class_id": "equity",
      "weight": 0.5
     },
     {
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      "weight": 0.5
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    ],
    "simulation_mode": "historical",
    "tail_profile": "historical",
    "tax_deferred_balance": 0.0,
    "tax_filing_status": "married_filing_jointly",
    "tax_free_balance": 0.0,
    "taxable_balance": 1510000.0,
    "taxable_cost_basis": 1208000,
    "volatility": 0.12
   },
   "frozen_reference": false,
   "failed_start_years": []
  },
  {
   "order": 2,
   "key": "horizon",
   "group": "waterfall",
   "label": "Retire at 40, not 65",
   "change": "Horizon 30 to 55 years",
   "success_standard": 1.0,
   "required_portfolio_usd": 1760000.0,
   "required_multiple": 29.333,
   "implied_withdrawal_rate": 0.03409,
   "production_success": 1.0,
   "success_one_step_below": 0.99,
   "first_year_tax_median_local": 0.0,
   "annual_tax_average_local": 0.0,
   "simulation_currency": "AED",
   "run_id": 23522,
   "share_url": "https://retirementlab.app/s/-8J-pHxeGmQ",
   "assumptions_version": "2026-10-21.v1",
   "payload": {
    "additional_expenses": [],
    "additional_income": [],
    "age": 40,
    "approximate_yield_rate": 0.02,
    "avg_return": 0.07,
    "baseline_annual_expenses": 60000.0,
    "citizenship": "UAE",
    "country": "UAE",
    "horizon": 55,
    "inflation": 0.02,
    "initial_net_worth": 1760000.0,
    "initial_year": 2026,
    "market_turbulence": "historical",
    "plan_to_age": 95,
    "portfolio_allocation": [
     {
      "asset_class_id": "equity",
      "weight": 0.5
     },
     {
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      "weight": 0.5
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    ],
    "simulation_mode": "historical",
    "tail_profile": "historical",
    "tax_deferred_balance": 0.0,
    "tax_filing_status": "married_filing_jointly",
    "tax_free_balance": 0.0,
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    "taxable_cost_basis": 1408000,
    "volatility": 0.12
   },
   "frozen_reference": false,
   "failed_start_years": []
  },
  {
   "order": 3,
   "key": "equity",
   "group": "waterfall",
   "label": "Hold 80/20, not 50/50",
   "change": "Allocation 50/50 to 80/20",
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   "required_portfolio_usd": 1630000.0,
   "required_multiple": 27.167,
   "implied_withdrawal_rate": 0.03681,
   "production_success": 1.0,
   "success_one_step_below": 0.99,
   "first_year_tax_median_local": 0.0,
   "annual_tax_average_local": 0.0,
   "simulation_currency": "AED",
   "run_id": 23532,
   "share_url": "https://retirementlab.app/s/F_m7rDV5YNo",
   "assumptions_version": "2026-10-21.v1",
   "payload": {
    "additional_expenses": [],
    "additional_income": [],
    "age": 40,
    "approximate_yield_rate": 0.02,
    "avg_return": 0.07,
    "baseline_annual_expenses": 60000.0,
    "citizenship": "UAE",
    "country": "UAE",
    "horizon": 55,
    "inflation": 0.02,
    "initial_net_worth": 1630000.0,
    "initial_year": 2026,
    "market_turbulence": "historical",
    "plan_to_age": 95,
    "portfolio_allocation": [
     {
      "asset_class_id": "equity",
      "weight": 0.8
     },
     {
      "asset_class_id": "bonds",
      "weight": 0.2
     }
    ],
    "simulation_mode": "historical",
    "tail_profile": "historical",
    "tax_deferred_balance": 0.0,
    "tax_filing_status": "married_filing_jointly",
    "tax_free_balance": 0.0,
    "taxable_balance": 1630000.0,
    "taxable_cost_basis": 1304000,
    "volatility": 0.12
   },
   "frozen_reference": false,
   "failed_start_years": []
  },
  {
   "order": 4,
   "key": "tolerance",
   "group": "waterfall",
   "label": "Accept 5% failure",
   "change": "Success standard: every cohort to 95% of cohorts",
   "success_standard": 0.95,
   "required_portfolio_usd": 1440000.0,
   "required_multiple": 24.0,
   "implied_withdrawal_rate": 0.04167,
   "production_success": 0.95,
   "success_one_step_below": 0.94,
   "first_year_tax_median_local": 0.0,
   "annual_tax_average_local": 0.0,
   "simulation_currency": "AED",
   "run_id": 23540,
   "share_url": "https://retirementlab.app/s/-IuT-Q5c1pk",
   "assumptions_version": "2026-10-21.v1",
   "payload": {
    "additional_expenses": [],
    "additional_income": [],
    "age": 40,
    "approximate_yield_rate": 0.02,
    "avg_return": 0.07,
    "baseline_annual_expenses": 60000.0,
    "citizenship": "UAE",
    "country": "UAE",
    "horizon": 55,
    "inflation": 0.02,
    "initial_net_worth": 1440000.0,
    "initial_year": 2026,
    "market_turbulence": "historical",
    "plan_to_age": 95,
    "portfolio_allocation": [
     {
      "asset_class_id": "equity",
      "weight": 0.8
     },
     {
      "asset_class_id": "bonds",
      "weight": 0.2
     }
    ],
    "simulation_mode": "historical",
    "tail_profile": "historical",
    "tax_deferred_balance": 0.0,
    "tax_filing_status": "married_filing_jointly",
    "tax_free_balance": 0.0,
    "taxable_balance": 1440000.0,
    "taxable_cost_basis": 1152000,
    "volatility": 0.12
   },
   "frozen_reference": false,
   "failed_start_years": [
    1929,
    1965,
    1966,
    1968,
    1969
   ]
  },
  {
   "order": 5,
   "key": "iid_history",
   "group": "waterfall",
   "label": "Draw years independently",
   "change": "Replay history to independent draws at history's own returns (Retirement Lab's defaults), bell curve",
   "success_standard": 0.95,
   "required_portfolio_usd": 1940000.0,
   "required_multiple": 32.333,
   "implied_withdrawal_rate": 0.03093,
   "production_success": 0.9515,
   "success_one_step_below": 0.94904,
   "first_year_tax_median_local": 0.0,
   "annual_tax_average_local": 0.0,
   "simulation_currency": "AED",
   "run_id": 23553,
   "share_url": "https://retirementlab.app/s/NI6FGL0_eRI",
   "assumptions_version": "2026-10-21.v1",
   "payload": {
    "additional_expenses": [],
    "additional_income": [],
    "age": 40,
    "approximate_yield_rate": 0.02,
    "avg_return": 0.07,
    "baseline_annual_expenses": 60000.0,
    "citizenship": "UAE",
    "country": "UAE",
    "horizon": 55,
    "inflation": 0.02,
    "initial_net_worth": 1940000.0,
    "initial_year": 2026,
    "market_turbulence": "historical",
    "n_scenarios": 100000,
    "plan_to_age": 95,
    "portfolio_allocation": [
     {
      "asset_class_id": "equity",
      "weight": 0.8
     },
     {
      "asset_class_id": "bonds",
      "weight": 0.2
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    ],
    "simulation_mode": "monte_carlo_iid",
    "tail_profile": "none",
    "tax_deferred_balance": 0.0,
    "tax_filing_status": "married_filing_jointly",
    "tax_free_balance": 0.0,
    "taxable_balance": 1940000.0,
    "taxable_cost_basis": 1552000,
    "volatility": 0.12
   },
   "frozen_reference": false
  },
  {
   "order": 6,
   "key": "tail_fit",
   "group": "waterfall",
   "label": "Add history's crash shape",
   "change": "Bell curve to per-asset shapes fitted to history",
   "success_standard": 0.95,
   "required_portfolio_usd": 1970000.0,
   "required_multiple": 32.833,
   "implied_withdrawal_rate": 0.03046,
   "production_success": 0.95203,
   "success_one_step_below": 0.94928,
   "first_year_tax_median_local": 0.0,
   "annual_tax_average_local": 0.0,
   "simulation_currency": "AED",
   "run_id": 23563,
   "share_url": "https://retirementlab.app/s/zpzG-vr4ONs",
   "assumptions_version": "2026-10-21.v1",
   "payload": {
    "additional_expenses": [],
    "additional_income": [],
    "age": 40,
    "approximate_yield_rate": 0.02,
    "avg_return": 0.07,
    "baseline_annual_expenses": 60000.0,
    "citizenship": "UAE",
    "country": "UAE",
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    "inflation": 0.02,
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     {
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     {
      "asset_class_id": "bonds",
      "weight": 0.2
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    ],
    "simulation_mode": "monte_carlo_iid",
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    "tax_filing_status": "married_filing_jointly",
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    "taxable_cost_basis": 1576000,
    "volatility": 0.12
   },
   "frozen_reference": false
  },
  {
   "order": 7,
   "key": "severe_tail",
   "group": "shape",
   "label": "Heaviest crash shape history allows",
   "change": "Fitted shape to the severe profile, same volatility",
   "success_standard": 0.95,
   "required_portfolio_usd": 1970000.0,
   "required_multiple": 32.833,
   "implied_withdrawal_rate": 0.03046,
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   "success_one_step_below": 0.94797,
   "first_year_tax_median_local": 0.0,
   "annual_tax_average_local": 0.0,
   "simulation_currency": "AED",
   "run_id": 23573,
   "share_url": "https://retirementlab.app/s/dsRvxRMRMJo",
   "assumptions_version": "2026-10-21.v1",
   "payload": {
    "additional_expenses": [],
    "additional_income": [],
    "age": 40,
    "approximate_yield_rate": 0.02,
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    "baseline_annual_expenses": 60000.0,
    "citizenship": "UAE",
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    "horizon": 55,
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   "frozen_reference": false
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  {
   "order": 8,
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   "label": "Stress: markets as rough as 1927-1956",
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   "simulation_currency": "AED",
   "run_id": 23583,
   "share_url": "https://retirementlab.app/s/trryV8sQLrg",
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   "frozen_reference": false
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  {
   "order": 9,
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   "simulation_currency": "AED",
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   "order": 10,
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   "change": "Solved before this study on the former crash model",
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   "run_id": 21838,
   "share_url": "https://retirementlab.app/s/c-cIsTPPRI8",
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}