Explore different futures with our retirement simulator. Compare scenarios and build confidence in your retirement decisions.
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Example: age 42, US resident, $850K saved. Saving $25K/year until retirement, with $115K/year spending. Modeled through age 95.
Success means the savings lasted to age 95. Share of 10,000 simulated paths, for this example only.
One example household, two retirement dates.10,000 simulated market paths. Tax modeling across 31 countries.
It's hard to feel confident about retirement when you're unsure how your choices might play out. Explore the questions on your mind.
Add your savings, income, spending, and retirement age.
Change your retirement age, savings, spending, or other assumptions, then run the simulation again.
Compare simulated success and how long savings last. Weigh those results against the years spent working and in retirement.
Start with your age, savings, income, spending, and where you expect to live in retirement. You can try the simulator for free without creating an account, then change your inputs to explore other scenarios.
It is the share of simulated market paths in which your savings last through your chosen time horizon. It helps you compare scenarios under your assumptions. It is a hypothetical result, not a guarantee of what will happen.
Yes. Change your retirement age, spending, savings, country, or other assumptions and run the simulation again. Compare the results to understand what each choice changes and where shortfalls appear.
Yes. The simulation models income tax, capital gains, and wealth tax where applicable for the country you choose. These calculations are simplified estimates based on your inputs and the modeled tax rules.
FIRE stands for Financial Independence, Retire Early. A FIRE number is an estimated portfolio target based on your annual spending and an assumed withdrawal rate. It is a starting point for exploring retirement, not a guarantee that savings will last.
Divide annual spending by an assumed withdrawal rate. For example, $50,000 divided by 4% gives a $1.25M portfolio target. The estimate changes with your spending and withdrawal assumptions.
Retirement Lab lets you explore those assumptions across simulated market paths, including modeled taxes, to see a range of hypothetical outcomes.
Retirement Lab publishes the simulations behind its modelling — the household assumptions, the tax year, and the underlying data are stated so the numbers can be checked, and the datasets are downloadable.
Browse Retirement Lab research, including country-by-country comparisons of what a retirement actually costs after tax.